Course: Risk Assessment Methods
Code: 3ФЕИТ08013
ECTS points: 6 ECTS
Number of classes per week: 3+0+0+3
Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Sonja Gegovska – Zajkova
Course Goals (acquired competencies): After completion of this course students should be able to collect relevant data and identify the main features of an uncertain situation, to identify standard problems, to process and analyse data in a statistical commercial software, to understand the risks involved in a decision which involves uncertainty, and quantify such risks. Students should also develop problem solving skills, modelling and simulation skills, and be able to interpret and critically evaluate results.
Course Syllabus: Threats, risks, probability and frequency of appearance and influence on the project. Uncertainties assessment and probabilities specification. Risk analysis methods. Qualitative methods: preliminary analysis, HAZard and OPerability study, Failure Mode and Effects Analysis. Tree-based methods: Fault Tree Analysis, Event Tree Analysis, Cause-Consequence Analysis. Quantitative methods: Sensitive analysis, Expected monetary value analysis. Monte Carlo simulations. Case studies and application of methods in real projects.
Literature:
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Required Literature |
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No. |
Author |
Title |
Publisher |
Year |
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1 |
Lee T. Ostrom, Cheryl A. Wilhelmsen | Risk Assessment: Tools, Techniques, and Their Applications | Wiley | 2012 |
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2 |
Cliff T.Ragsdale | Spreadsheet Modeling and Decision Analysis: A Practical Introduction to Management Science | South-Western College Pub | 2007 |
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Additional Literature |
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No. |
Author |
Title |
Publisher |
Year |
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1 |
Malvin H. Kalos, Paula A. Whitlock | Monte Carlo Methods | WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim | 2008 |
